2008 NFL Outlook
Part 2 | Part 3 | Part 4  Coming Soon!

By Jaws

For the past several years I have broken down the statistical trends from the previous years to get an edge on who to avoid and who to target in drafts as well as who the real sleepers are.  I do this by looking at weekly stats of all the major players, looking for signs of improvement or hints at declining numbers, while also taking into consideration who was hurt and who the opponent was.

Let the reader be warned, this is not an exact science.  There are a lot of factors that affect stats.  Injuries play a big part and generally cannot be dependably predicted.  Coaching changes, scheme changes, draft picks and free agent acquisitions all can have an unpredictable and drastic change on previous performance.

Having said that and looking back at my results from the previous years, I flopped on some predictions (Shaun Alexander looked good) but nailed others (again advising drafting TJ Housh over the more popular Chad Johnson).  So, take everything with a grain of salt and maybe you will find a golden nugget in all of this.

If you’d like to share your opinions, our message board The Trough is where you can find me…join us!

AFC EAST

Marshawn Lynch touched the ball 20 times in all but one of the games he played in (he only had 18 rushes and one catch in that game… so it’s not like he was completely ignored that week).  He had 280 carries even though he missed 3 games.  Through that, he kept a 4.0 YPC average.  Plus, he topped 100 combined yards in 3 of the last 4 games of the season.  It looks like it doesn’t matter who is QB in Buffalo – Lynch is going to get the rock and he knows what to do with it.

Lee Evans.  Ugh.  Every year I have to talk about him.  First he was sporadic.  Then he had a consistent and strong finish giving hope for a big year.  Last year he just disappeared then returned to his sporadic self.  It is clear that Evans likes Losman but Losman wasn’t good enough to be the starter.  So what to do with Evans now?  If you have never had him on your team before you need to draft him now so that you can join the rest of us in the “I’ve drafted Lee Evans support group” this time next year.  He has too much potential to ignore, but I really wish I could just ignore him.  I’m going to kick myself for saying this, but I expect that Lee Evans will be slightly more consistent this year and improve on last year’s numbers.  It is a contract year after all.  I’m so stupid I will probably draft him again… it’s an illness.

Do you want anyone from Miami on your team?  Their QB’s stink.  Ronnie Brown is coming off an injury and now has to share with Ricky Williams (until he gets hurt or is caught smoking in the boys room).  Nonetheless, the answer to the question is “yes.”  Ted Ginn Jr. finished the season the way you want rookie wide receivers to finish.  He started off nonexistent and then improved from there.  In his first 9 games, he had 8 receptions for 141 yards and one TD.  In his final 7 games he had 26 receptions for 267 yards and one TD.  He isn’t going to win you any games with those numbers, but he is definitely worth a flyer if he is taken in about the 12^th round.  Don’t expect too many touchdowns though; this is Miami that we are talking about, after all.

Four years ago, many people were taking Peyton Manning with the number one overall pick hoping that he would duplicate his 49 TD season.  I, on the other hand, was targeting Edgerrin James because I felt that Indianapolis would not focus on passing so much in the red zone (I work on the theory that many records are accomplished only when the coaches and players target those records).  Edgerrin James ended up with about the same number of yards that year, but his touchdowns went from 9 to 13 (Peyton only threw 28 touchdowns).  So, Tom Brady threw 50 touchdowns last year and people are looking at him in the first round.  My focus turns back to the running backs.  Laurence Maroney finished the season with 6 TD’s in the final 7 games.  I expect that New England will run more next year either by choice or by force (I think defenses have figured out that the key to stopping New England is to stop Randy Moss – they can’t all do it, but they will all try).  So Laurence Maroney being drafted at the very end of the 3^rd round looks like good value to me… assuming he stays healthy next year.  As for Brady, he will only throw 50 TD’s again if he and the coaches decide to go for the record again.  I don’t see that happening, so I see him dropping to about 35-40 touchdowns (still very good numbers).

What happened to the Jets?  One year they are in the playoffs, the next they are scraping themselves off the collective cleats of the league.  Whatever was in their Gatorade, I don’t want any of it on my team… don’t overlook all of their players though.  Jerricho Cotchery and Laveranues Coles are both worth considering since you can get them in the 7^th round or later.  The problem is, which one to get?  If Pennington starts, Coles could have a great season.  He started the season with 6 touchdowns in the first 6 games that Pennington played in, but never caught a TD with Clemens as the starter.  Coles also had injury issues last year, which is making him drop further in drafts.  He missed 5 games and was questionable but played in 5 other games.  Considering those facts and his QB situation, 55 receptions for 646 yards and 6 TD’s is a lot better than those numbers would normally look.  Cotchery showed up on the injury report 8 times (missing one game) and put up much better numbers than his 8^th round ADP suggests (82 catches, 1130 yards, but only 2 TD’s).  But notice this: there were only three games where Cotchery and Coles both played while Clemens was the starter for the whole game.  In two of those games, Cotchery combined for 13 catches and 284 yards.  So Cotchery might be better to have if Clemens gets the start.  Keep an eye on the Jets training camp.

Thomas Jones should improve from last year, but his 4^th round ADP is still a little too rich for me.  After all, he managed only 2 touchdowns last year.  I think he will do better with an improved line, but do you really want to spend a fourth rounder on the hopes that the Jets improve?

NFC EAST

The numbers are in… Tony Romo is good; someone should probably draft him.  You do have Jason Witten as your #1 overall TE, right?  You should.  If Marion Barber is the third, what did the first two do?  **Sleeper alert** – take a flyer on Terrell Owens.  I know, I haven’t heard of him either, but his numbers look really good.  Okay, so obviously Dallas has a potent offense filled with stars, and since everyone knows that, there will not likely be any steals in the draft from the Cowboys.  Let’s move on.

The question with the New York Giants is not if Brandon Jacobs can play, it is can he avoid getting hurt.  He missed 5 games last year, but they were not all at once.  He missed weeks 2-4 (and basically week 1 as well) then he missed weeks 12-13.  He is obviously an injury risk.  Brandon Jacob’s name stares at you from your draft list and it shouts, “You've got to ask yourself one question: Do I feel lucky? Well, do ya, punk?”  He finished the season with three straight 100 plus combined yard games (422 yards combined) and three touchdowns.  If he stays healthy, you got a steal in the third round.  If he doesn’t, Dirty Harry blows your head clean off.  You’ve gotta love those options.

Run McNabb… run!  If McNabb runs with the ball 6 times or more, Philadelphia wins.  He ran 9 times at Dallas; they won 10-6.  He ran 7 times at Washington; they won 33-25.  He ran 6 times at New Orleans; they won 38-23.  Do you suppose the coaches noticed that trend as they looked back at the tapes?  Against Washington, McNabb also threw 4 touchdown passes.  He still can be a fantasy force, but he is going to have to run the ball and stay on the field.  I wouldn’t want to draft him early, but I suppose he could be a good value in the 6^th round (his average draft position), but I would rather wait until the 7^th. 

Reggie Brown had 15 catches for 191 yards and 2 TD’s in his final three games of the season.  Kevin Curtis had 18 catches for 180 yards and 1 TD in his final three games.  It doesn’t look like McNabb is going to play favorites between them, so they are both draftable but they will limit each other’s value.

Brian Westbrook was on the injury report 9 times last season.  That’s what you get with Westbrook: great production and great, big headaches.  He only missed 1 game, but there were many who still played him that week because he was only listed as questionable.  You just never know with him.  Be responsible, only draft Westbrook if you have an industrial sized bottle of Tylenol set aside for the season.

Clinton Portis had a good year, but he also lead the league with 325 carries making him a prime candidate for injury this year… if you believe in that sort of thing.  Santana Moss finished the regular season with 8 receptions, 115 yards and one touchdown, tempting you to draft him again, but then you would have to decide when to start him, and there is no telling which week is the right week to do that (he had seven games with fewer than 50 yards receiving and did not play at all in two games).  In other words, this ‘Santa’-na is just as likely to give you coal as he is a gift.  I think people are catching on about that though as he is getting drafted in the 7^th round.  I guess I could handle having him as a #4 WR.

Part Two Coming Wednesday!