2008 NFL Outlook
Part 1 | Part 3 | Part 4  Coming Soon!

By Jaws

Last week I focused on the divisions in the East; this week I move North.  To access the first installment, please use this link:

As always, feel free to join us at our message board The Trough to share your own opinions!

AFC NORTH

Last year I warned against drafting Todd Heap.  This year Heap is dropping to the 8^th round.  He is worth getting there.  Before his season ended, Heap had no fewer than 4 catches in each of his games.  He totaled 19 catches for 201 yards and 1 TD.  He isn’t a top TE anymore, but had he kept up that pace he would not have been far off of Antonio Gate’s numbers last year.  That is good value in the 8^th round.

I’m not a huge McGahee fan, but it’s hard not to notice that he had 8 TD’s in his final 10 games.  That’s pretty good considering how bad Baltimore’s offense was last year.

Cincinnati is a team in crisis.  What did they do to fix that?  They got rid of Chris Henry.  Yeah, he was a bad apple, but he was also a talent.  They didn’t get rid of Chad Johnson.  How many bad apples does it take to spoil the whole bushel?  Carson Palmer had a down year last year.  He had 26 TD’s, but 6 of those came in one game.  He had 3 games with no TD’s, 6 games with only 1 TD, and a career-high 20 interceptions.  That sort of production can kill a fantasy team.  If you think Cincinnati took the drastic steps to right the ship, then draft Palmer.  Otherwise, why would you expect this year to be any different than last?

Don’t shy away from TJ Houshmandzadeh.  He seems immune to the woes of Cincinnasty.  He did slow down at the end of the year, but he scored at least one touchdown in his first 8 games.  Remember Chris Henry?  He happened to miss those first 8 games and now he won’t be playing at all.  So, do you have Houshmandzadeh high on your draft lists?  Bump him a little higher.  Actually, I just wanted to show you that I could spell his name… impressed?

Jamal Lewis apparently likes running behind a good offensive line.  Are you worried that age will catch up to him?  Well, it will, but it doesn’t look like you should worry about that just yet.  In the final 7 games, he had over 100 yards combined in 6 of those games.  It isn’t age that I am worried about, it is two other issues.  First, his TD’s were sporadic.  He had 11 touchdowns but they came in 7 games.  The second concern is that Cleveland’s schedule is much tougher next year.  In two games against Pitt last year, Lewis combined for 89 rushing/receiving yards.  But he scored in both of those games and he did manage a 122 combined yards with a TD against the stout Ravens defense even though it was an away game.  So he can succeed against tougher teams, but don’t get too excited about Lewis with games against Dallas, Pittsburg (x2), Baltimore (x2), NY Giants, Washington, Jacksonville, Tennessee, Indianapolis and Philadelphia.  Eleven of their games are against top 10 run defenses from last year.  That is brutal.

Don’t look at Heath Miller’s season long statistics.  Look at his end of the season statistics.  He had 6 touchdowns in the first 9 weeks but he only had one touchdown in the last 7 games and he in those games he was unable to manage even 40 yards.  That could be weather related, but I think teams figured out they should cover Miller.  Either way, it looks like you can’t expect much help from Miller during your playoffs, when you need him most.  He is only the 10^th TE coming off the boards, so most people aren’t severely overrating him.

There are many who think that the addition of Rashard Mendenhall will cut into Ben Roethlisberger’s TD totals.  I am one of them.  That hurts Hines Ward and Heath Miller too, but not Santonio Holmes.  Holmes is not a red zone threat.  The shortest touchdown pass he caught was from seven yards out.  His TD’s were from an average of 27 yards out.  So his numbers are not likely to decrease.  In fact, he managed 942 yards and 8 TD’s while missing 2 games to injury.  This will be his third year in the league as well.  I’d say he is a good guy to have on your team!

Some have put Roethlisberger ahead of Drew Brees on their draft lists.  Pittsburgh had the second fewest passing attempts of any teams in the NFL and ranked only 22^nd in passing yards per game.  Clearly they were making the most of their opportunities, but don’t get confused into thinking that Pittsburgh has turned into an awesome passing machine.  Keep Big Ben where he belongs, behind Brees.

NFC NORTH

Chicago was the worst running team last year with 3.1 yards per carry.  Benson deserves some blame, but that can’t be all his fault.  The other Adrian Peterson had 3.65 YPC in the final three games.  That is an improvement, but only Arizona and Kansas City were worse.  In other words, Matt Forte may be a new name and a new opportunity but don’t get overly excited, it is still Chicago that he is running for.

Please stop reading now if you plan on drafting a Chicago QB… I can’t help you!

The departure of Martz makes Detroit hard to figure out.  However, it is a safe bet that Detroit will run the ball more this year.  Last year, Detroit only had six games with their running backs combining for 20 rushes.  In those six games, Roy Williams had zero touchdowns, but he only played in four of those games.  This should probably be filed under the useless-why-did-you-even-bother-to-type-it stats file.

How will things change in Green Bay without Brett Favre (though he may suit up and try to sneak into a few games unnoticed)?  Week 13 may be our only clue.  Green Bay at Dallas where Brett Favre gets hurt in the second quarter so Aaron Rodgers gets a healthy dose of playing time (2 ½ quarters).  He enters the game down 10-27.  In that time, Driver has 7 catches for 66 yards and Jennings had 5 catches for 87 yards and a touchdown.  Donald Lee also was targeted several times and ended up with 3 catches for 30 yards.  Both Gregg Jennings and Donald Lee had no catches until Rodgers started taking the snaps.  Assuming Rodgers can stay healthy, it looks like the passing game should be okay.  It is the running game that is concerning.  Ryan Grant wasn’t going to get too many carries since his team was already down by 17 points, but with his 7 carries he only managed 15 yards (including a one yard TD).  If Dallas had gone into a prevent defense, those numbers should have been higher or he should have at least had some receptions (he had none from Rodgers).  Grant had 7 carries for 79 yards and a TD in the quarter and a half that Favre was QB (mind you, one of those was a 62 yard touchdown run).  There is not enough of a data sampling to really be conclusive, but I would be hesitant to have Ryan Grant as my #1 RB this year (he is currently the 11^th RB going off the boards).  In fact, I would be a little concerned taking him early in the 2^nd round.

Why is it that so many people have given up on Tarvaris Jackson?  In the final 7 games he threw the ball 184 times with 120 completions (65%) for 1,311 yards (10.9 yards per completion) and 8 touchdowns (7 interceptions).  He also added 195 yards rushing with one TD in that time span.  Don’t go drafting him as your #2 QB or anything, but if he can improve on those numbers even a little it will help keep the defenses honest to help open lanes for Chester Taylor and Adrian Peterson.  Speaking of Peterson, I defend the guy and think highly of him, but I can’t deny that his last two games of the season scare me.  20 carries for 63 yards is not what I expect from a guy being considered as the #1 or #2 overall pick.  Then again, Ladanian Tomlinson started last season with 35 carries for 68 yards.  I guess you just have to live with that sometimes.

Part 3 Coming Saturday!!!