2008 NFL Outlook
Part 1 | Part 2 | Part 4  Coming Soon!

By Jaws

This week’s discussion brings us to the South.  For those who want to reference back to the previous articles, here are the links:

Our message boards at The Trough are always open if you want to comment!

AFC SOUTH

Andre Johnson doesn’t care who his QB is anymore.  Rosenfels… Schaub, it’s all the same to him.  He had a TD in all but two of the games he played in (8 TD’s in 9 games played).  The only thing Andre Johnson worries about is his health, and that is all I worry about too.

In the last five games that Anthony Gonzalez played in, he had 22 catches for 369 yards with 3 TD’s.  That is exactly the type of late season performance that indicates a second year breakout is in the works.  Gonzalez is on my “must get” list.  If Harrison returns healthy and somehow exonerated from his criminal suspicions there might be some cause for concerns, but I don’t think that will happen.  Gonzalez can currently be had at the end of the 6^th round (27^th WR off the board).  I think he is great value at that point.  He isn’t supplanting Reggie Wayne (29-478 with 4 TD’s in that time) or Dallas Clark (20-193 with 5 TD’s in that time) so don’t drop them any in your rankings, but there is enough fantasy points available in Indianapolis that Gonzalez is worth having too.

Here is a question for you: how do you think that Peyton Manning feels about Tom Brady?  I get the feeling there is a little feud there.  I think that is part of why New England played like they did last year.  It was clear that Brady wanted that record just like Manning was obviously going for it when he first took the record.  So, what are the odds that Peyton decides to try and get that record back this year?  Stow that away in the back of your mind as something to think about.  If he does go for it… you definitely will want in on that action.

David Garrard finished the season with 12 passing TD’s and 1 rushing TD in his final 6 games.  He did that against such teams as Indianapolis, San Diego and Pittsburgh, and with Reggie Williams being his best receiver.  Sniff…sniff… that is the smell of a breakout year coming.  Garrard can be had in the 8^th round on average (and sometimes as late as the 10^th round), but you are going to have to beat me to him.

In that same 6 game period, Fred Taylor finished strong.  He had 98 carries for 683 yards and 4 touchdowns.  Some people are thinking that he is going to slow down this year (he will be 32 after all).  What do you think; does that finish last year suggest anything like that?  Obviously Taylor is already an exception to the 30-year rule.  Where is Fred Taylor going?  The 7^th round!  Yikes.  That is some solid value there.

At least with Tennessee I can get my hopes up because of young talent.  Will Vince Young take a step in the right directions?  The late season statistics say no, but I think he still might.  Will Chris Johnson get to carry the rock… the statistics are silent, but I am hopeful.  However, the stats do say that LenDale White is chubby and Chris Johnson is really fast.  Remember, stats never lie!

On a side note, Roydell Williams finished the season with 14 catches, 207 yards and 2 TD’s.  He might be worth stashing away on your bench… then again, he hasn’t come back from his broken ankle so he may not do anything for the Titans besides warm a bench.  His average draft position is after the 14^th round, so it isn’t like you are going to have to overspend for him.  If he looks like he is going to play, grab him late and stash him.

NFC SOUTH

Are you excited about Michael Turner?  I was, but then he went to Atlanta.  Atlanta was 26^th in the league for rushing yards and only had 7 rushing TD’s as a team.  Something tells me that Turner isn’t going to be good enough to turn those numbers significantly around.  On average he is lasting until the fourth round, but I think I would rather have McFadden over Turner (he is getting picked at about the same time as Turner).

Is there anything else to get excited about with Atlanta?  Sure, when Redman took over (he is currently at the top of the depth chart in Atlanta) for the final 5 weeks of the season, Roddy White had 26 receptions for 350 yards and 3 touchdowns in 4½ games.  Those were not against outstanding defenses except against the top ranked TB defense.  In that game White only had 1 catch for 4 yards.  Chris Redman is currently on the top of Atlanta’s depth chart.  Atlanta has a tough schedule this year, but as long as Redman is slated to start don’t forget White just because he is in Atlanta.

Based on his average draft position, people are still scared about Delhomme’s shoulder.  However, his upside outweighs his risks.  He threw 8 TD’s and over 600 yards in 2 ½ games before his injury.  Delhomme is currently going around the 9^th round.  I’ll take some of that please!

Then there is Steve Smith.  He was the number 1 WR on many draft lists last year.  Now he is about the 8^th.  Don’t be scared away from him.  Smith actually started to get some chemistry with Moore at the end of the year.  With Moore as QB, Smith had 22 catches for 257 yards and a TD in the final three games last year.  So even if Delhomme does go down sometime this season, Smith’s numbers should not suffer as much.

Drew Brees started off extremely slow in the touchdown department but finished the season strong (27 TD’s in the last 12 games).  Marques Colston played fairly consistently throughout the season.  McAllister put up about the numbers you would expect for a guy on the disabled list.  Reggie Bush is all right, but not living up to his hype (except in PPR leagues).  In other words, there is nothing really surprising to see here.  The only real question I have about New Orleans is the role that Robert Meachem will play this year.  I looked closely at last year’s stats and they didn’t tell me anything about that.  Bummer.

Maybe I’m just tired from all the research and typing, but there is nothing about Tampa Bay that excites me.  They are middle of the road all the way around and I don’t expect that to change this year.  They aren’t bad, but they aren’t good either.  I don’t know about you, but I don’t want my fantasy team to bore me.  Don’t expect to find any Buccaneers on my teams this year.