2008 NFL Outlook
Part 1 | Part 2 | Part 3 

By Jaws

This week brings the final installment of my analysis into this season’s fantasy football landscape.  I hope you found it helpful as we enter the final week or so of preseason, and get ready to kick off Week 1.

Please consider stopping by The Trough, our message boards, and share your own opinions throughout the season.

AFC WEST

Any Denver pick this year is an absolute gamble.  Brandon Marshall is coming off a serious injury and I think he may have eaten a stupid-filled chocolate candy (Remember, “stupid is as stupid does” and “you are what you eat.”).  In addition, the Broncos added three new wide receivers, Jay Cutler is a recovering diabetic, and Selvin Young beefed up but still has Shanahan as his coach.  In other words, last years stats won’t tell you a thing about what this team is going to do this year. 

Don’t forget about Larry Johnson.  Sure Kansas City is a mess at QB and O-line, but that didn’t stop LJ from rushing for 123 yards against San Diego (he was at San Diego, no less).  He can still be productive.  I just don’t think he will be consistent let alone a monster fantasy football force.  After that 123-yard game, he rushed 9 times for 12 yards.  He did have three 100-yard rushing games before his injury and he scored at least once in his last three games.  But don’t get your hopes up too high either.  Larry Johnson is currently the 9^th RB off the board on average.  I wouldn’t want him as my #1 RB, but I would be happy with him as my #2.

Dwayne Bowe had 34 receptions in the final 7 games of the season.  A good chunk of those were with Brodie Croyle as his QB.  There is no reason to think that Bowe won’t improve on his rookie year.  During that same 7 game stretch, Tony Gonzales had 44 receptions.  I wouldn’t expect a lot of touchdowns from either Bowe or Gonzales (the each had 1 TD in that time period), but don’t let the QB situation in Kansas City scare you away from either of them.

I look at Oakland’s offense and marvel.  How does a team this bad run so well?  It can’t be that defenses had to focus on the incredible quarterbacks (Culpepper and McCown strike fear in no one).  It’s not the brilliant moves of procuring Dominic Rhodes or LaMont Jordan that made the difference either.  Nonetheless, this offense managed to be the 6^th best rushing offense and had a 4.1 YPC average.  So what if JaMarcus Russell is unproven, can he be any worse than what they had last year?  All signs point to McFadden being an immediate impact player.

I’ve heard people debating between Chris Chambers and Vincent Jackson.  In the final four games of the regular season (remember, Chambers didn’t even start the season with this team so you have to look late to get an idea how things will play out this year) Chambers had 4 more receptions than Jackson, 143 more receiving yards and 2 more TD’s (Jackson had none in that time period).  Vincent Jackson was the darling sleeper pick this time last year, but that was before San Diego picked up Chambers.  Clearly, Chambers is the WR to have from this group. 

The only thing that is going to slow LaDanian Tomlinson is an injury.  He isn’t sharing carries.  He isn’t riding high on the hype machine.  He isn’t Adrian Peterson.  He is LaDanian Tomlinson and he should be the first player off the board. 

I don’t take TE’s early.  Other’s do, and I understand why, but make certain you take the right tight end if you are going to do so early.  If you think Gates is the right tight end, you might want to think again.  Gates finished the season with 3 of his last 5 games being one catch performances.  Two of those games were weeks 15 and 16 so they came at the worst possible time.  The other two games were 6 catch performances, so its not like he has lost all value or anything like that, but he isn’t the #1 TE anymore.

NFC WEST

Keep a close eye on the Arizona training camp.  Leinart needs to step up or Kurt Warner is going to be the steal of this year’s draft.  Leinart is coming off an injury and facing criticism for not taking football seriously enough.  Warner, on the other hand, had 21 TD passes in the final 8 weeks.  Of course, he also had 5 interceptions… in one game!  Still, from a fantasy perspective, it is obvious that he knows how to use Boldin and Fitzgerald.  So if Leinart looks even remotely like he is still injured or on a short lease, grab Warner as your #2 QB who will likely be your starter (not bad for someone currently getting picked in the 14^th round).

The other reason to keep an eye on what Leinart is doing is Fitzgerald.  Leinart threw a whopping 2 TD’s last year.  Fitzgerald was not on the receiving end of either of those.  If Arizona looks committed to Leinart, you probably should let someone else take Fitz and go for a different top WR.

Edgerrin James isn’t a spring chicken, but he did get over 1,000 yards and 7 TD’s last year.  That isn’t bad for someone who can be had in the 5^th round right now.  Plus, during the Leinart days (including the QBBC days), James carried the ball over twenty times 4 of the 5 chances.  But don’t ignore what happened after that.  James had 4 TD’s in the first 6 games.  Once Warner was the undisputed QB, James would see the end zone only three times (in 10 games).  So, Warner equals good for your team, good for Fitz, but bad for James…. any questions?

San Francisco was horrible last year… you probably noticed that.  However, Vernon Davis started to live up to his hype.  He had 13 catches for 118 yards and 2 TD’s in the final 3 games (Shaun Hill was QB for those… and yes, technically there was a game after that, but Chris Weinke was QB that week so we are ignoring it).  I am betting that Martz will recognize what he has in Davis and make certain to get him more involved catching than blocking.  This is the year to have Vernon Davis, grabbing him in the 8^th round, especially if Shaun Hill wins the QB job.

Frank Gore had 53 receptions pre-Mike Martz.  You have to think that there will be more of those this year (after all, 19 of those came in 2 games).  Then again, Frank Gore had 260 rushing attempts; you have to think that will drop.  So in PPR, Gore will be racking up the points, but I would be wary of him in non-PPR leagues.

Deion Branch missed the last game of the regular season in 2007.  It looks like he might miss some time this year too.  Who stepped up in his place?  It wasn’t Hackett, who is no longer in Seattle, or Engram; it was Nate Burleson.  Burleson had 7 catches for 119 yards and 2 TD’s in one game.  Keep in mind that was against Atlanta so don’t get too excited.  Still, Burleson had 20 receptions for 312 yards and 4 touchdowns in the last 5 games so there is some reason to think that maybe he will find a way to be relevant in the fantasy world in 2008.  This is especially true with issues surrounding Deion Branch and Bobby Engram.